Before the Bell: Waiting for the U.S. Rate Decision

Billion-euro deals were struck in both the United States and Belgium in recent days. Ice-cream maker Magnum lists on the stock exchange today, while Ageas sells its stake in AG Insurance for 1.9 billion euro.

After a quiet weekend, investors are wondering whether today will bring more volatility than Friday. Markets currently appear cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate decision on 9 and 10 December. That hesitation was visible on Friday in the narrow trading ranges of the Euro Stoxx 50 (+0.1%), the S&P 500 (+0.2%) and the Dow Jones (+0.2%), all of which closed around the flat line. Beauty retailer Ulta Beauty (+12.7%) surged after reporting better-than-expected results and raising its outlook. Cloud-data company Rubrik (+22.5%) also rallied after delivering quarterly numbers that came in far above analysts’ expectations. Lingerie producer Victoria’s Secret (+18%) reported a smaller loss than feared. A higher revenue and an upgraded full-year forecast sent the stock sharply higher.

In Asia, attention turned to a Japanese report showing that the country’s economy contracted last quarter. The Topix index gained 0.5% ahead of next week’s Bank of Japan rate meeting. In Europe, the Belgian government has given the green light for the privatisation of Belfius. Banks such as KBC, BNP Paribas Fortis and ING stand at the front of the queue as potential buyers. In the Netherlands, Magnum is being spun off from Unilever. For every five Unilever shares, investors will now receive one share of Magnum, which will trade on Euronext Amsterdam. Today, U.S. software company Oracle will release its quarterly results.

A Billion-Euro Deal in Belgian Insurance

Two to 2.5 billion euro — that is what the Belgian government expects to raise by selling a 20% stake in Belfius. The former Dexia Bank Belgium would once again be partially privately owned. The move also sets the tone for 2026 in the Belgian financial sector, as the decision could trigger a wave of consolidation among players such as KBC, ING and BNP Paribas Fortis. Belfius is a highly sought-after target, and any potential buyer would immediately take a leading role in the Belgian market. Sharp-eyed investors will also notice that Ethias suddenly appears on the menu. Until now, the MR party blocked a sale because it wanted Ethias to merge with Belfius. But once Belfius is partially privatised, pressure will mount to sell Ethias as well. That would be good news for Ageas. Analysts at Kepler Cheuvreux calculated last week that if Ageas were to acquire Ethias, it would obtain a 30% market share in both life and non-life insurance in Belgium. A takeover by KBC, according to the same analysts, would boost earnings per share by 7%. Today, Ageas already sold its stake in AG Insurance to BNP Paribas for 1.9 billion euro. Consolidation in the Belgian insurance sector is well underway.

Cooking Costs Money. Making Films Too.

“Dear xxxx, thank you for being a Netflix member since 2015. We hope you enjoy everything we have to offer. On 6 January 2026, your monthly price will be updated to 21.99 euro.” The price increase is cleverly phrased as if you are being rewarded for loyalty. Netflix subscriptions in Belgium will soon become significantly more expensive. The basic plan rises from 9.99 to 10.99 euro. Standard and Premium go up by 2 euro each, to 16.99 and 21.99 euro per month. And Netflix certainly needs the money. The streaming giant has made an 83-billion-dollar offer for film studio Warner Bros. Discovery — what some are calling the deal of the decade. Only Disney’s 71-billion-dollar acquisition of Fox was larger. Series such as The Sopranos, Game of Thrones and all Harry Potter films would suddenly fall under Netflix, as would competitor HBO Max. The offer immediately opens the door for arbitrageurs. Shares of Warner Bros. Discovery currently trade around 26 dollar, while Netflix is offering 27.75 dollar per share. But be careful: that discount exists for a reason. Hollywood is resisting, and U.S. regulators still need to approve the deal. Netflix would owe Warner Bros. Discovery 5.8 billion dollar if the acquisition falls through due to regulatory objections — reassuring arbitrageurs that Netflix has real “skin in the game.”

Did you know…

Japan’s 10-year government bond yield rose today to 1.97%? That brings it close to its highest level since the summer of 2007.

This article was translated from Dutch and was originally published on Spaarvarkens.be.