Before the bell: Triple Witching Day

Today is Triple Witching Day. The corporate calendar is packed with news from both Belgium and the United States.

Triple Witching Day takes center stage today. A staggering 4,500 billion dollar worth of options and futures expire today, often leading to heightened market volatility. This phenomenon occurs four times a year—on the third Friday of March, June, September, and December. Interestingly, increased volatility often starts the day before Triple Witching. Yesterday, that translated into a sharply lower opening for the U.S. S&P 500, which then briefly turned green before ultimately closing the day with a 0.2% loss. In Europe, the Euro Stoxx 50 dropped 1%, while in Turkey, the central bank tried to halt the lira’s decline by raising interest rates to 46%. In Asia, the Hang Seng index fell 2.5% this morning.

There’s also plenty of company news. Belgian pharma company Hyloris reported a reduced net loss of 6.3 million euro and still has 23.6 million euro in cash reserves. Nike beat analyst expectations thanks to a revenue drop of only 9%, while a decline of 11% had been forecast. Chipmaker Micron posted better-than-expected results for both profit and revenue. Today we’ll see Belgian consumer confidence data, followed by earnings from Nio and cruise operator Carnival.

Timing is everything

The stock market is sometimes called the temple of regret. Whatever you do, there’s a good chance you’ll sell too late—or too early. And that’s not even considering the stocks you wish you’d never bought. Brederode released its annual figures yesterday. The most striking detail? After years of investing in Chinese stocks, the holding sold its stakes in Prosus and Alibaba last year—just before Chinese equities began to rally. Still, the holding company performed well. Brederode’s net asset value rose 10% to 141.36 euro. Today, investors can buy the stock for 110.80 euro, implying a 22% discount. Brederode remains a solid buy, despite the Chinese misstep.

Will the Exmar takeover fail?

As mentioned previously in our Spamalot, we believe the Exmar takeover may not go through. Why? Acquirer Saverex has made things particularly difficult for itself. Not only does Saverex need to secure 95% of all shares in the gas shipping company to launch a simplified squeeze-out bid, but 90% of the remaining shareholders must also accept the offer. That means just 1.5% of shares would be enough to keep Exmar listed. Saverex doesn’t appear to have met that threshold either, having only acquired 92.54% of shares in the first round. Now they’re trying again: the new offer runs from 27 March to 16 April. Our take? After last year’s takeover drama, it’s only fair that Saverex sweats it out. We no longer hold a position in Exmar and recommend accepting the offer. We have no interest in holding an illiquid stock, especially now that Exmar’s market outlook remains uncertain.

Did you know…

the catering company Sodexo is also publicly traded? The stock took its biggest hit since 2018 yesterday after issuing a profit warning. A decline in student enrollment in the United States is weighing on growth at U.S. universities.

This article was translated from Dutch and was originally published on Spaarvarkens.be.