Before the bell: Israel escalates violence

No panic selling. Investors are seasoned. But can oil stocks benefit?

European stock markets and Wall Street fell barely 1% on Friday after Israel launched heavy rocket strikes on Iran. Israel is determined to destroy Iran’s offensive capabilities and, more importantly, its nuclear program. “Clearly, investors do not believe in an escalation,” some market strategists commented. That may be true for now, but whether they are right is still uncertain. If Israel pushes as hard as it has in Gaza and elsewhere, escalation will be unavoidable. As an investor — just like a soldier — you don’t want to use up all your ammunition too early. On the other hand, investors have become rather desensitized in recent years. The oil price stood at 73 dollar on Friday evening, about 7% higher than before the attacks, and hasn’t moved much this morning. No panic prices, then. Markets had enjoyed a strong run, so investors may have found an excuse to take some profits — though oil stocks like TotalEnergies (+0.7%) and ExxonMobil (+2.1%) didn’t exactly explode higher.

Asian markets are trading mostly flat this morning. On Tuesday evening, Colruyt will publish annual results, and on Wednesday, the Federal Reserve meets in the US. Also worth watching: Trump’s reaction to the rising tension in the Middle East. The previously falling oil price had been a welcome force against inflation and could have offset some of the upward pressure on consumer prices from the new import tariffs.

Retail giants want their own currency

Payment card issuers and payment processors all took a hit on Friday. Retailer Walmart and e-commerce group Amazon are reportedly planning to issue stablecoins, allowing them to handle their customers’ payments internally rather than pay commissions to companies like Visa (-5%) and Mastercard (-4.6%). Other firms such as American Express (-3.4%), PayPal (-5.5%), and Adyen from the Netherlands (-2.6%) also declined. Stablecoins are digital currencies pegged to a traditional currency. The question now is whether regulators will allow companies that process such vast payment volumes to do so using alternative currencies.

Golden insight or lucky timing?

Last Tuesday, Goldman Sachs triggered the best trading day in 25 years for Umicore (11.43 euro) with a bullish analyst note. The investment bank raised its price target from 8.4 euro to 16 euro — a remarkable leap. Light at the end of the tunnel? Perhaps. But De Tijd reported in its weekend edition that, the day before the report came out, an unusually high number of call options were traded on Umicore in Brussels. Normally, options trading on Belgian stocks is minimal. The timing feels highly coincidental — just one day before Goldman Sachs issued its dramatic recommendation and price target hike. This smells like a case for the FSMA and the judicial authorities.

Did you know…

that Conner Rousseau recently called the NATO spending target of 5% “ridiculous” in De Standaard, while Defense Minister Francken sees that percentage as a realistic goal within 7 to 10 years?