Before the bell: from chip records to oil dreams in Venezuela

After a strong start to the year for global chip stocks, attention today is shifting to geopolitical tensions surrounding Venezuela.

European equity markets closed the first trading day of the year on Friday at new record levels. In London, the FTSE 100 (+0.2%) crossed the 10,000-point mark for the first time, while the Euro Stoxx 50 (+1.0%) also ended at an all-time high. European chipmakers were among the biggest winners. ASML (+7.0%), ASMI (+7.0%) and BE Semiconductor Industries (+11.5%) rallied on reports that TSMC is once again allowed to import certain US-made equipment into China. Ørsted (+4.6%) also advanced, after the Danish wind energy specialist announced it would legally challenge the US suspension of its Revolution Wind project. In the United States, the market tone was equally positive. The S&P 500 (+0.2%) and the Dow Jones (+0.7%) both closed higher. Defence and mining stocks performed strongly on the back of higher commodity prices and persistent geopolitical tensions.

It remains to be seen whether this momentum will continue today after the US carried out a surprise overnight strike on Venezuela on Friday, during which President Maduro was reportedly taken into custody. The stated plan is to place Venezuela temporarily under international supervision, although China and several other countries have called for the president’s immediate release. For now, there is no sign of panic in Asian markets. In Tokyo, the Topix index (+2%) and the Nikkei (+3%) are both higher. In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng is flat. Alibaba is up 2.8%, while Baidu (-0.7%) eases back slightly after a strong start to the year. The stock is still about 7% higher than on 31 December. The corporate calendar is empty today. At Argenx, CEO Tim Van Hauwermeiren will become chairman, while COO Karen Massey will take over as CEO.

Who benefits from military action in Venezuela?

Which oil company could potentially benefit most from the political power shift in Venezuela? That is the question oil investors will undoubtedly have asked themselves over the weekend. The country is estimated to hold around 300 billion barrels of proven oil reserves, representing roughly 17 to 20% of global reserves. The question of who actually owns that oil has been a source of income for international lawyers for decades. Nearly twenty years ago, Venezuelan president Chávez forced foreign oil companies to convert their projects into joint ventures with at least 60% state participation. Chevron, TotalEnergies, BP and Equinor agreed, but ExxonMobil and ConocoPhillips refused and saw their assets nationalised, which later led to major arbitration cases. Now that Maduro has been removed, it is not inconceivable that investors will once again begin to speculate about compensation claims. The US president wants to ramp up oil production in Venezuela, and in such a scenario the US oil majors would be at the front of the queue. Today, Chevron is the only major US oil company with an explicit exemption allowing it to produce Venezuelan oil. Even so, substantial investment will still be required to unlock that potential.

Tesla: it’s no longer about cars

418,227 vehicles sold. That is the number of Teslas sold worldwide by Elon Musk’s group in the fourth quarter. It clearly falls short of the consensus expectation of 422,850 vehicles compiled by Tesla itself. Sales were even 16% lower than in the same quarter last year, highlighting just how saturated and competitive the electric vehicle market has become, particularly in Europe and China. Price cuts continue to put pressure on margins, while new models are being delayed and competitors are quicker to fill market niches that were once typically Tesla’s. Still, the investment case is not dead for Tesla enthusiasts. Tesla has long been about more than just cars, focusing instead on promises around robotaxis, robotics and its growing energy and storage division. 2026 risks becoming a pivotal year in which Tesla must prove that robotaxis, robotics and energy storage are more than just promises, and that the company can reinvent itself as a broader AI and energy-infrastructure player.

Did you know…

that there are no European ETFs that allow direct investment in Venezuela? US sanctions and capital controls severely limit the ability of many asset managers to invest in Venezuelan securities, discouraging index providers and ETF issuers for years now.

This article was translated from Dutch and was originally published on Spaarvarkens.be.