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Nike Q4 en volledig boekjaar 2023
Nike Q42023: Omzet $12,8 mia tegenover 12,59 verwacht. WPA $0,66 tegenover $0,67 verwacht. (Bolero stelt in Beurs bij het ontbijt dat Nike ontgoochelt met winst per aandeel 😊)
Omzet steeg 5% (8% ex FX), zwakste groei in 4 kwartalen omdat groothandel voorzichtig werd met plaatsen van nieuwe orders gezien moeilijke macro-eocomische omstandigheden.
China herstelt met 25% groei na drie kwartalen van omzetdalingen als gevolg van het zero covid beleid. CEO John Danahoe: “So, you heard our Q4 growth was 25%. We had a strong 6/18, and that’s across different categories, performance and lifestyle men’s, women’s, kids, really strong performance in running and basketball wholesale fitness. But what was really clear is that the NIKE formula of the best innovation combined with great local storytelling, combined with the marketplace is connecting with Chinese consumers, particularly Gen Z. And so, the Gen Z consumer in China cares about innovation, and they’re doing a great job of taking our global innovations and hyper-localizing them as well a great job of local storytelling.
Fiscaal jaar 2023: Omzet: +10% (16% ex FX). Brutomarge daalde met 140 basispunten tot 43,6% (2022: 46%) in een poging van de overtollige voorraad af te geraken (promoties). Operationele marge: 11,5% belastingtarief: 18,2%. Nopat marge 9,4%. Capital turnover 3,66x. Operationele ROIC: 35%.
Voorraad:
CEO John Danahoe: “We return to healthy inventory ahead of our competition. Our inventory is flat year-over-year in value and down in units versus 12 months ago. The actions we’ve taken position us for more profitable growth moving forward. Across our business, we continue to build a marketplace that addresses how consumers want to be served giving them what they want, when they want it, and how they want it.”
CFO Matt Friend: “Beyond driving strong top line growth, we finished the year with a significantly improved marketplace position, with total marketplace inventory units, including NIKE and our wholesale partners, down year-over-year. We feel very good about the results driven by our decisive actions over this past year, as well as the sales momentum that we continue to see from NIKE Direct and our top strategic partners, including DICK’S Sporting Goods, JD, Sports Direct, and our city specialty partners.
Outlook 2024:
Q1 outlook onder analistenverwachting en reden van daling koers nabeurs. Amerikaanse consument is voorzichtig en bespaart op sneakers en sport artikelen.
Omzetverwachting 2024: mid-single-digits (aangevuurd door Nike Direct). (Eerste kwartaal: flat-to-low single digits)
Brutomarge: verbetering van 140 tot 160 basispunten (200 ex FX)
Voorraad:
CFO Matt Friend: So, when we look at where we ended the year and the progress that we’ve made on inventory, we feel really good about our ability to drive healthy growth in 2024. And so – and you see that in our gross margin guide. We’re guiding to expand margins by 140 basis points to 160 basis points, and that includes a 50 basis point negative FX headwind. If we back out the FX, it’s approximately 200 basis points of operational gross margin expansion.
Danahoe: “the marketplace remains highly promotional. And when we step back and look at the actions that we took last year, we’re very happy with where we finished the year. In fact, our inventory levels are ahead of our plan and ahead of the competition. We saw total marketplace inventory units down versus the prior year. And when we look at NIKE-owned inventory in particular, we feel incredibly good about where we are and the plans that we have going into the first half of next year.”
“And so, we feel great about where we are, but we recognize that next year, the environment is going to continue to be promotional and that even puts pressure on our wholesale partners in terms of how they think about managing through the first half of the year.”
Groeivooruitzichten voor boekjaar 2024 vallen tegen. Geen structureel probleem, maar een cyclisch probleem. Voor mij geen grote verrassing dat in deze omgeving de groeivooruitzichten niet zijn wat we van Nike verwachten. Mij blijft vooral het herstel in China bij (boycots..?) en de vooruitgang met de voorraad bij.
Om af te sluiten een stukje uit call over margedoelstellingen lange termijn:
Analist: “Matt, just wanted to go back to the margin puts and takes and maybe talk a little bit about the long-term margin targets that were issued way back in fiscal 2022. I know a lot has changed since then, but are we still thinking in terms of a high-teens operating margin long-term? And how do we think about the margin profile of DTC and the mix shift of the DTC?”
Matt Friend: “Sure, John. Well, let me start – I’ll start with the back and I’ll come to the front in terms of the way you asked the question. We’re making substantial progress towards the long-term goals that we had highlighted a couple of years ago. Our Consumer Direct Acceleration strategy has been a consumer-led strategy. And when we look at the mix of our business in Digital and in Direct relative to where we were in fiscal year 2019, we’ve made significant progress against it.
And we continue to invest to grow based on the fact that consumer continues to choose to shop in our stores and in our digital channels or at least to engage in our digital channels before they go try to find the product that they want in the wholesale marketplace. And so, we’re very pleased with where we are today. We finished fiscal year 2023 at a 44% mix in total Direct and a 26% mix in Digital.
And the consumer will decide the ultimate endpoint. And what I mean by that is, whether we land exactly at 60% or not, it doesn’t really matter. But what we are confident long-term is that we’re going to be a more Direct and a more profitable company. And so, when I look at our guidance for fiscal year 2024 and the gross margin expansion that we’re planning for on an operational basis, we’re making significant progress to come back to where we were prior to the transitory impacts.
And then we still see the benefits of structural opportunities to drive our margin long-term. We’ve talked about those before. Those include the price value that we create in our products and the opportunity that creates for us to raise prices to the impact of having an increasing channel mix to some of the cost – product cost opportunities we see through simplification of our SKU line and end-to-end efficiency. But the time line to predict when we’re going to get there, as we’ve been talking about for a couple of quarters is, is difficult to predict.
And a point on that in cases, we’ve got 150 basis points of foreign exchange headwinds between last year and this year. But we are confident that we’re on the path towards achieving these long-term goals, even though it’s a little bit more difficult to predict the exact time that we’re going to get there, but we think that we’re on a path to the high-40s long-term gross margin goal. And at this point, we’re continuing to do within our control in order to move us in that direction.”
John Donahoe: I’ll just build on one of the things that Matt says, the key to the whole thing is having the best innovation in the industry. That’s what brings people to our Direct channels that brings people to our Digital channels. And the momentum Heidi has had her team together offsite earlier this week and seeing the design, product creation, men’s, women’s, kids, storytelling and brand teams, really accelerating the pace of innovation, accelerating our ability to connect with the consumer is ultimately what’s going to fuel not only our top line, but also our bottom line. And so, the feeling of momentum and confidence is really growing as we move into this more streamlined structure.
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8 Replies
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Bedankt Luc!
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Maar ondanks een lichte daling vandaag lijken ze mij nog steeds veel te duur. Adidas lijkt mij dan interessanter of vloek ik nu in de kerk…
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Inderdaad, Nike ging van extreem duur naar duur. Adidas is na de voorbije rally ook niet goedkoop meer rekeninghoudend met het wegvallen van het merk van Kany West. Ik overweeg een deel van mijn opgelopen Adidas positie naar mijn kleinere Nike positie om te zetten om de twee wat meer in balans te brengen.
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Amai Luc
Levi’s, Adidas én Nike in portefeuille. Sharp dressed man. 😀
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jaja Jochen, en dan nog een geurtje van Tom Ford (Estée Lauder) om het geheel af te maken. :-)
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Ik ben eerder fan van Puma, volgens mij betere en gezondere vooruitzichten, dit is mijn mening he groeten Pascal
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Puma is inderdaad een gevestigd merk, prima cijfers ook. Maar ‘betere en gezondere’ vooruitzichten moet je me wel even uitleggen, dat begrijp ik niet meteen.
Puma is gehalveerd in 2022, maar weet niet of het aandeel al goedkoop is. De lagere multiple t.o.v. Nike is overigens op zijn plaats, want Puma genereert nog niet de helft ROIC als die van Nike. Groeivooruitzichten van beide bedrijven zijn op eerste zicht vergelijkbaar.
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Uit een arikel dat is ik pas nog schreef over de kansen die een fondsbeheerder van JP Morgan ziet in diverse aandelen. hij vindt dat Adidas zijn grootste problem heeft opgelost (zie hieronder🖕 )
Het stuk kan je helemaal lezen in de club, hier : Beleggingsanalyse: Vijf tips voor wie in aandelen durft beleggen – Spaarvarkens.be
4. Mensen willen merken en ervaringen
Europa is de thuis van de grootste merken voor consumenten. Luxegroep LVMH geniet wereldwijd van een sterke vraag. Luxemerken verlagen hun prijzen niet, maar groeien door extra producten uit te brengen waarmee andere niches en markten veroverd worden. ‘Luxeproducten zijn een wissel op de toekomst’, zegt Tanna. ‘Het zijn niet de babyboomers die dit kopen, maar jongere generaties.’
‘Adidas is een van de sterkste (sport)merken. Twintig jaar lang hadden ze geen goede leider. Maar door de ceo van concullega Puma over te nemen, is dat eindelijk opgelost.’👍
Nog een aandeel voor de vrije tijd: Ryanair. De enige luchtvaartmaatschappij die tegelijk rendabel is, capaciteit opvoert en marktaandeel wint. Uit een enquête van Londen Luton Airport bleek dat mensen liever reizen dan uit eten gaan en voor de reis desnoods besparen op restaurantbezoek. Ryanair noteert tegen 13,2 keer de winst.
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