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De andere kant van AI – een mogelijk scenario
Intrigerende kijk in de (/ een mogelijke) toekomst, door Citrini Research (een onafhankelijke onderzoeksdienst die doet aan “globale macro-trading, met een sterke nadruk op het vroegtijdig identificeren van langdurige megatrends”) :
https://www.citriniresearch.com/p/2028gic?hide_intro_popup=true
O.a. deze zinnen zinderen na:
” It won’t change the fact that a Claude agent can do the work of a $180,000 product manager for $200/month.
If these fears manifest, the mortgage market cracks in the back half of this year. In that scenario, we’d expect the current drawdown in equities to ultimately rival that of the GFC (57% peak-to-trough). This would bring the S&P500 to ~3500 – levels we haven’t seen since the month before the ChatGPT moment in November 2022.
What’s clear is that the income assumptions underlying $13 trillion in residential mortgages are structurally impaired. What isn’t is whether policy can intervene before the mortgage market fully processes what this means. We’re hopeful, but we can’t deny the reasons not to be. “
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3 Replies
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ik zag dit bericht en andere posts over AI en voor welke disruptie AI zal zorgen ook passeren, ik las echter ook het volgende bericht (okt 2025) van een energie- en grondstoffenspecialist, die ervan overtuigd is dat energie de bottleneck wordt en dat de ‘timetables’ van de techbro’s niet realistisch zijn…
‘“OpenAI, with its deal with Nvidia and AMD on top of their Stargate datacenter, plans to build a total of 26GW of data centers in the next few years.”
26 GW is about the installed capacity of Switzerland, one of the most electrified countries in the world, if not the most. Took us 100 years.
Hard to guess the replacement cost in today’s CHF. An easier data point: UK’s Hinkley Point C will likely get to £50bn for 3.2GW. The construction time will be 13-15 years by EDF, ex permits et al.
If they go for combined-cycle gas turbines, they must come from Siemens Energy, Mitsubishi Heavy or GE Vernova. All are booked out and will pass on huge cost inflation plus a natural monopoly premium – after all, such turbines are, perhaps, the most difficult tech kid humans have ever created. Glimpse of hope: GE wants to double capacity I read. We will see.
Coal plants would likely be the path of least resistance, except that there is nobody left to build them outside China or perhaps Russia (lol). No coal plant was build in the US since 2012; even longer for Europe which is phasing it out by law (green deal). Doable for top engineering firms to re-engage for sure, but not quick.
My point: the AI data center crowd is mostly dreaming with timetables. They also drive cost with it. Their own vanity is their biggest enemy, just because they are good in story telling and some Saudi dreamer want to be part of “big”.
PS: ordinary people will resist data centers sooner rather than later if their electricity bills goes up. Etc etc’
en ook
‘I think AI electricity supply sources will play out as a mix of nuclear and gas-combined cycle turbines — certainly not wind or solar! Coal? Perhaps at the margin in the West. Big in Asia.
Either way, new capacity installations will play out MUCH slower than forecast. Power development isn’t chips making. Tech bros will learn it the hard way.’
Het zou dus allemaal minder snel gaan dan voorgesteld wordt…
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En niet te vergeten: AI heeft constant ‘afkoeling’ nodig.
Is dat de reden dat Trump zijn zinnen op Groenland (koud, hydro power, veel ruimte, …) gezet heeft?
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