Before the bell: gold rises toward the 5,000 dollar threshold

The price of gold climbed this morning to near the psychological level of 5,000 dollars per ounce. Higher inflation data make it unlikely that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates next week.

The most important macro-economic data point on Thursday was US inflation. It rose to 2.8%, making it harder for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates. For now, markets are not showing signs of anxiety. The S&P 500 (+0.6%) is trading just 1% below its all-time high. Among the biggest movers was GE Aerospace (-7.4%). The aircraft engine manufacturer saw revenue and profit rise by roughly 20%, but is unable to keep up with strong demand. As a result, growth is coming in below expectations. Pharmaceutical group Abbott (-10%) also disappointed, reporting quarterly results below analysts’ forecasts. After the close, Intel also issued weaker-than-expected guidance for the current quarter. As with GE Aerospace, production cannot keep pace with demand. Additional investments in manufacturing capacity are required, meaning no profit is expected this quarter. We therefore expect a red opening later today.

In Asian trading, the gold price rose a further 1% to 4,960 dollars per ounce. The psychological level of 5,000 dollars may therefore come into view today. In Europe, the corporate calendar is relatively light. Attention will focus on how Ubisoft (-39.9%) trades in France after yesterday’s heavy sell-off. The company is cancelling several games and even closing studios. For this year, Ubisoft expects a loss of 1 billion euro. Today, defence company CSG will launch its IPO in Amsterdam. The shares will be priced at 25 euro, which would make it the largest IPO ever for a defence company. Later today, results are also expected from telecom group Ericsson and oil services company Schlumberger.

Asia is addicted to Belgian biscuits

A striking gainer on the Belgian stock exchange on Thursday was Lotus Bakeries. The share rose 4.4% without any clear immediate trigger. Could it be linked to the global hype around Biscoff on Instagram and TikTok, as CEO Jan Boone suggested in De Tijd? Normally we are sceptical of such explanations, but from Asia I can only confirm the picture. Wherever you go, products from Lotus Bakeries keep popping up. Shopping malls sell cheesecakes with Biscoff. When I open my Grab app to order coffee, even the smallest coffee shop offers a Biscoff latte. In supermarkets, I even see Biscoff biscuits on the shelves here in the Philippines. Is this increased availability linked to the new factory in Thailand? That certainly plays a role. Since the summer of 2025, that factory has been operational earlier than planned and capacity is being ramped up step by step. My expectation is that Lotus Bakeries’ growth will accelerate sharply again in 2026. The market already seems to be anticipating that.

From a shortage of biscuits to a shortage of chips

The stock market is not about the past, but about the future. The figures Intel published after the close for 2025 were solid, but the real problem lies in 2026. For the current quarter, Intel does not have sufficient inventory to meet demand. That is a fundamental issue. Companies that cannot keep up with demand end up in what could be called a “Lotus Bakeries scenario”: revenue growth slows simply because production capacity is fully utilised. Lotus Bakeries solved that problem with a new factory in Thailand, but that takes time. Intel, for its part, will have to invest billions to scale up production, which means no profit should be expected this quarter. Combined with a share price increase of roughly 150% over the past year, we therefore expect a sharp correction in the stock today.

Did you know…

that Biscoff already ranks among the five best-selling biscuit brands in the world and is on track for third place? Globally, only a handful of brands such as Oreo and Chips Ahoy! sell more than Biscoff.

This article was translated from Dutch and was originally published on Spaarvarkens.be.