Before the bell: smile for the camera

The Tokyo stock exchange remained closed today, while Hong Kong loses one percent despite solid macro-economic data. Belgian investors are preparing for the important “capital-gains snapshot” that will be taken shortly.

Wall Street appears reluctant to end 2025 at a historic high. Both the S&P 500 (-0.1%) and the Nasdaq (-0.2%) edged lower. IBM (-1.2%) fell a bit more, although shareholders have little reason to complain: the stock gained 37.4% this year. At UnitedHealth Group (+1%) we see the opposite picture: a late-year rebound, but still a full-year loss of 34.3%. The acquisition of AI start-up Manus by Meta (+1.1%) was welcomed by shareholders. Meta is up 13.7% this year, which looks solid, even though the gain still stood at 34.9% back in August. Since then, investors have somewhat reined in the CEO, who continues to spend heavily on artificial intelligence. All in all, investors cannot complain. The S&P 500 rose 17.3% this year and the Nasdaq gained 21.3%. In Brussels, the Bel20 advanced 19.1%, and the total return for investors is even higher once net dividends are included, reaching 21.8%. UCB (+23.4%) did slightly better still, after the pharmaceutical stock already surged 144% last year. Financière de Tubize, the mono-holding above UCB, outperformed them all with a gain of 46.6%.

Beijing announced this morning that factory activity in China rose from 49.2 to 50.1 this month. The improvement is surprising and marks the end of an eight-month contraction. Yet the Hong Kong market (-0.9%) is not rising today. The likelihood of a near-term rate cut or additional stimulus from Beijing remains limited. The Hang Seng index does end the year with a strong gain of 27.8%. In Tokyo there is no movement at all today. The market remained closed and will reopen on Monday. The Topix index gained 22.4% this year.

Temple of regret

Yes, investing means taking risks. But most of the time, those risks are rewarded. It cannot be a party every day or every year, but 2025—like 2024 and 2023—was once again a strong year for markets. In most years, equities deliver gains. It is a pity not everyone realises that. Success is contagious. When markets perform well, more companies decide to go public. Brussels rarely manages to attract new listings, but look at China. As a Spaarvarken reader, you are no doubt used to keeping an eye on China from time to time. Yesterday alone, no fewer than six new listings debuted in Hong Kong. Six. Together they raised 7 billion Hong Kong dollars, or roughly 900 million dollars. Over the whole of 2025, a total of 75 billion dollars was raised on the Hong Kong exchange—three times as much as in 2024. Impressive. And yes, the Hong Kong exchange itself earns nicely from that activity. What do I regret? That all of this was fairly predictable—and that despite intending to buy shares of that exchange, I never actually did. A share of Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing now costs 407.6 Hong Kong dollars. At the start of the year, it was just 287 HKD. That is a gain of 42%. Fortunately, many Spaarvarkens do hold Alibaba, which gained 73.8% this year. We should probably learn to be satisfied, right?

Keep investing!

We can count ourselves lucky not once, but twice this year. First, because our savings piggy bank has grown. Second, because the reference level used to calculate capital gains has also increased. Shortly, Belgian brokers will take a proverbial photograph of all closing prices across all markets. Those prices will serve as the reference for the new Belgian capital-gains tax. Much ink has already been spilled on this tax, and the details remain unclear. For some Belgian investors, that uncertainty is a reason to stop investing altogether. That is unfortunate. Whatever the final details of the tax may be, taxation should never be a reason not to invest. So keep investing, so that your wealth can continue to protect itself against the destructive effects of inflation over time. The entire Spaarvarkens team will do its utmost to guide you through this process again in 2026. Enjoy the celebrations—and see you in 2026!

Did you know…

that European stock exchanges are only open for half a day today? The Frankfurt exchange is closed all day. On Wall Street, trading continues throughout the day. Tomorrow markets are closed. Trading resumes on Friday, although the Tokyo exchange will remain shut.

This article was translated from Dutch and was originally published on Spaarvarkens.be.