Before the bell: a strong start is half the battle

On Wall Street, investors toast the new year. Their glass is half full, though not with alcohol.

The past trading week was split in two due to the New Year celebrations. The first few trading days of the year don’t offer much insight into what the rest of 2025 will bring. To surpass the record-breaking 2024, this year will need to perform spectacularly. Europe got off to a rocky start. The Brussels Bel20 has barely moved so far, but the average European stock has already lost 0.5%. Across the Atlantic, after New Year’s Eve fireworks, Wall Street roared into 2025. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq have gained 1% and 1.6%, respectively. Once again, tech stocks led the way. In just two weeks, Donald Trump will be sworn in as President of the United States. His proposed trade tariffs could push the dollar toward parity with the euro, while also reigniting inflation in the US. No drama, no panic. The tensions will likely prove less severe than they appear.

In Japan, investors are back to trading stocks for the first time this year, with a focus on selling. The Topix dropped 1.1%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index lost 0.5% this morning. Wall Street will take a pause this week on Thursday in honor of former President Jimmy Carter, who passed away at 100 years old on December 29. In Germany, we’ll get December inflation data, while the eurozone will see the release of the Purchasing Managers’ Index survey results.

From private to public

After two stellar years on the stock market, many private equity investors are itching to cash in on their investments. US investment bankers anticipate that favorable market conditions, combined with a president supportive of corporate profits, will create a “window of opportunity” for IPOs. Last year, 225 companies went public in the US, a 46% increase from the 154 IPOs in 2023. In 2025, that number could rise further. This bodes well for publicly traded holdings with stakes in private equity, such as Brederode, Gimv, and Sofina. A strong year for IPOs could positively impact their results.

Prefer 0.0%

Some may have just shaken off their New Year’s hangover, but another headache could be looming—this time only for those invested in distillers, brewers, and winemakers. Stocks like Rémy Cointreau (-5%), Diageo (-4%), and Pernod Ricard (-3.1%) struggled last Friday. Brewers like AB InBev (-2.8%) and Heineken (-1.8%) also lost ground. Alcohol producers are no longer operating in a growth market, while non-alcoholic beverages are gaining popularity. US Health Secretary Vivek Murthy has proposed warning labels on alcoholic beverages, citing research showing increased cancer risk from as little as one drink per day. In Belgium, new regulations to reduce alcohol consumption came into effect on January 1. Many investors are selling their alcohol-related stocks.

Did you know…

the consumption of red wine in France has dropped by 90% since the 1970s? This trend is spreading worldwide. Younger generations increasingly prefer rosé, beer, or one of the many non-alcoholic alternatives.

This article was translated from Dutch and was originally published on Spaarvarkens.be.