Before the bell: ceasefire on the stock market

This morning is a calm day without much corporate news, although there’s significant movement in Amsterdam around the delisting of two companies linked to Bill Ackman.

Today may be November 11, but that doesn’t mean all markets are closed. In the U.S., stocks can still be traded, although the bond market will be closed. On Euronext, trading will proceed as usual, though historically, this is a quieter day with less corporate news and lower volumes. Investors will likely spend the day digesting last week’s market performance, which showed America was hot while European stocks were sold off. This was evident in the weekly performance of the Nasdaq (+5.7%), S&P 500 (+4.7%), and Euro Stoxx 50 (-1.7%). Tesla continued its winning streak on Friday, with a weekly gain of 31.4% following Trump’s election. In Asia, the Hang Seng is down 1.2% this morning following lower inflation figures out of China.

It’s a very quiet morning for corporate news, as most companies are closed. Ahold Delhaize suffered a cyberattack in the U.S. over the weekend, though it didn’t impact physical stores, only online orders. We’ll be watching how Umicore’s stock moves today; on Friday, its shares dropped by 5% despite a lack of news beyond the restructuring announced earlier in the week in its battery division. Today, several steel companies, including Aperam and ArcelorMittal, will cut their dividends. Tomorrow, all eyes will be on Bayer and Spotify’s earnings.

What happens after the takeover speculation?

How will Exmar’s results look? Now that takeover speculation around the Antwerp-based gas shipping company Exmar has faded, the stock has dropped by 17.5% in the past month. Ceo Nicolas Saverys legally had the option to launch a new takeover bid during this period, but he chose not to. This was a signal for some shareholders to sell their shares, as takeover speculation fades. Not that the shareholders who didn’t accept the bid are too concerned, as the figures remain strong. Despite a sharp drop in revenue, the group achieved earnings per share of 1.42 dollar in the first nine months of the year, compared to 0.69 dollar a year earlier. The question now is what the future holds. The stock has become less liquid after the takeover, with small volumes having a large impact on the price. After record years, the comparative basis will be tough in 2025. We personally think the likelihood of a short-term takeover has significantly decreased.

Amsterdam loses two listed companies

Notable news came on Friday evening from Pershing Square ceo Bill Ackman. The billionaire, with an estimated net worth of nearly 10 billion dollar, wants to delist both Pershing Square Holdings and Universal Music Group from the Amsterdam exchange. Pershing Square Holdings holds stakes in Chipotle Mexican Grill, Alphabet, and Hilton Worldwide Holdings. Why does Ackman want to move the listing to London? The recent violence against Jewish people in Amsterdam, which gained significant attention internationally. Publications like The New York Times, the BBC, Frankfurter Allgemeine, and Le Monde reported the attacks as breaking news and discussed antisemitism. Our take? Currently, 90% of trading in Pershing Square Holdings takes place in London rather than on its secondary listing in Amsterdam. Delisting would likely make the shares more liquid and save costs. With 23% of the shares, it’s highly likely Ackman will succeed. The same goes for Universal Music Group, where Ackman sits on the board and wants to move the headquarters to the U.S. This move would bring additional advantages, such as the potential inclusion of UMG in U.S. indices. We expect shareholders to welcome these plans positively.

Did you know…

that the S&P 500 crossed the 6,000-point mark for the first time last Friday? In February, investors celebrated when the index reached the 5,000-point milestone.

This article was translated from Dutch and was originally published on Spaarvarkens.be.