Before the bell: Trump trade temporarily in the lead

As Trump leads, investors tally their gains. Bitcoin hits a record. Wall Street and European markets in the green.

The very last polling stations in Hawaii and Alaska closed at 7 a.m. our time. Trump is currently ahead, but few neutral experts dare to say if he will ultimately win. Bitcoin has already climbed past its record of 75,000 dollar. Even estimating how long it will take to determine the winner is challenging; some predict it could take weeks if the results are close. And yet, it should be straightforward, wrote De Standaard: “According to an old stock market rule, it’s clear: Kamala Harris wins. If the market rises in the three months leading up to the election (as it has now), the candidate from the incumbent party wins. If the market falls, the challenger’s party takes the presidency.” In the last 24 presidential elections, this has held true 20 times. Will the exception confirm the rule? Wall Street rose easily yesterday, with a 1.2% gain for the S&P 500 and little movement in the bond markets. With Trump in sight, interest rates are climbing today. After a somewhat challenging period, Big Tech is doing well. Nvidia rose 2.9%, Amazon 1.9%. Tesla gained 3.5%, but the star of the day was Palantir, up 23.5%. In this time of war and conflict, the defense sector has the wind in its sails, and Palantir is adding AI to the mix.

The Bel20 (+0.7%) once again led the way in Europe. Syensqo (+7.2%) benefited from results that were less weak than expected, cost savings, and the start of a share buyback program. In Milan, Ferrari (-7%) suffered from 20% lower sales in China.

Japan is up, and Hong Kong is down. This morning, Toyota, Care Property Invest, Ahold Delhaize, AMG, BMW, and UniCredit are releasing their results. In the U.S., post-market results are expected from MDxHealth, Nyxoah, Gilead Sciences, and Arm.

Ahold Delhaize plans 1 billion euro share buyback

The retailer confirmed its annual target of an operating margin of at least 4% and free cash flow of 2.3 billion euro. Europe performed strongly last quarter, while the U.S. remained stable. There were still costs related to store closures in the U.S. and restructuring in Belgium. The bottom line is that the profit margin exceeded expectations, with an operating margin of 3.9% compared to analysts’ estimate of 3.7%. To complete the positive picture, the group announced a 1 billion euro share buyback program.

Is Solvay doing a “Syensqo”?

Syensqo made significant gains yesterday, and this morning the spin-off Solvay posted better-than-expected results. Revenue grew by 3.9%. Operating cash flow (EBITDA) remained steady, and net profit reached 103 million euro, while analysts had expected only 54.4 million euro. For the full year, the chemical company maintains its forecast of a 10–15% decline in EBITDA, but now indicates it will likely be closer to 10%. For now, CEO Philippe Kehren doesn’t see market improvement, but Solvay has managed to accelerate its cost-cutting program.

Did you know…

that major British asset manager Schroders plunged 17.4% in London yesterday? Schroders saw many clients leave in the third quarter, taking billions of pounds with them.

This article was translated from Dutch and was originally published on Spaarvarkens.be.